Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Predictions are unpredictable

Tarot Cards
Ritualistically at the start of each new year psychics, astrologers, crystal ball gazers and fortune tellers trot out their predictions for the year. The media laps it up (because news is usually slow except for the Bowl games), and in days all is forgotten. Rarely are these sooth-sayers held to account and held up as the charlatans they are. People just seem to shrug it off with a wink and a nod as if everyone knows its a scam. The fact that a Psychic has a store front 5 minutes from my house, and manages to stay in business, tells me that it's not quite everyone.
You would think that things are different in the scientific community and you would be wrong. The old saying that physicians bury their mistakes, holds true in the broader biological community as well. Mistakes are buried in piles of new data , or conveniently removed by those whose predictions fell short of reality. That is what is discussed in two columns in the Financial Post today. Both columns discuss predictions related to global warming, one was written by two biologists and pertains to the extinction of species. The other written by Peter Foster looks at the millions of climate refugees. Neither prediction has come to pass, or is likely to in our lifetime, but both are still referenced by climate warmists.
Yet another prediction related to climate appeared in The Register, a British online newsletter the other day. It suggests that our Sun may be headed into another Maunder Minimum - a prolonged sunspot minimum. How is that climate related? It seems that low-sunspot activity is associated with colder temperatures on Earth. The Maunder Minimum coincided with the Little Ice Age of the 1600's and the famous River Thames Frost Fairs.
Global warming, little ice age, I don't know what to do? Maybe I'll check out that local psychic for advice?  

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