Monday, May 2, 2011

Election Day - Last Gasp and Predictions



The two pictures show my final campaign day (May 1) at the local shopping mall and my attempt to 'use-up' leftover lawn signs on a major roadway so they would be visible on election day. Electioneering is just plain hard work, with a very uncertain payback. Why anyone would be  attracted to being a politician as a job, is way beyond me. It's not a fun job at all. As I suggested on my radio interview a couple of weeks back, the job of MP should be part time, certainly the legislative part of it. In several American States that is exactly the way it is. During the many lengthy breaks that our MP's take throughout the year, not to mention election campaigns, the country seems to function just fine thank you very much. The government bureaucracy can handle itself quite well, and a smaller bureaucracy, as I would suggest, would function autonomously for lengthy periods of time without legislators mucking up the works. I can dream, can't I?

The unexpected news last night about Osama Bin Laden's demise, might affect the outcome of this election - or not. Reminders of 9/11 and discussion about terrorism throughout the day might favour Harper's gang, we will see. If the Harper-ites squeak out a majority, that could be the cause. At dissolution the House of Commons seat distribution was: Conservatives 143, NDP 36, Liberals 77, BQ 47, Green 0. 
Gerry Nicholls predicts: Conservatives 157, NDP 85, Liberals 56, BQ 10, Green 0, I think he has a soft-spot for the Harper-ites. 
My go-to-blog poll, ThreeHundredEight.com, predicts Conservatives 143, NDP 78, Liberals 60, BQ 27, Green 0. 
Another poll has it: Conservatives 146, NDP 65, Liberals 63, BQ 33, Independent 1, Green 0.

My prediction for the country (which is just a guess): Conservatives 149, NDP 72, Liberals 57, BQ 30, Green 0.

My prediction for Markham-Unionville: Turnout will be fairly light, 50 to 55% of eligible voters will actually vote here.

The Liberal will win without a problem getting about 50% of the total, Conservative: ~30%, NDP: ~16%, Green less than 2%, and me the Libertarian, around 1%. A victory for me would be beating the Green candidate, its possible, but 1% would still double my showing from 2008 and I would be happy with that. With that base we could make some noise in the Provincial election this Fall. Even with less, there will be noise!    

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