Fifty Million Climate refugees by 2010 - oops

Just for fun I thought I would post he United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) prediction that by 2010 there would be 50 million “climate refugees." I mentioned this in yesterday's posting.  That's the number they gave in 2005 when Al Gore was making climate news and the "evidence" was mounting that a climate catastrophe was imminent.

The handy map you see above left has been removed from their website with the excuse you can read for yourself from their website just to the left there below the map.

Interested in other comments? Check this out, and this, and this.

Predictions are unpredictable

Tarot Cards

Ritualistically at the start of each new year psychics, astrologers, crystal ball gazers and fortune tellers trot out their predictions for the year. The media laps it up (because news is usually slow except for the Bowl games), and in days all is forgotten. Rarely are these sooth-sayers held to account and held up as the charlatans they are. People just seem to shrug it off with a wink and a nod as if everyone knows its a scam. The fact that a Psychic has a store front 5 minutes from my house, and manages to stay in business, tells me that it's not quite everyone.
You would think that things are different in the scientific community and you would be wrong. The old saying that physicians bury their mistakes, holds true in the broader biological community as well. Mistakes are buried in piles of new data , or conveniently removed by those whose predictions fell short of reality. That is what is discussed in two columns in the Financial Post today. Both columns discuss predictions related to global warming, one was written by two biologists and pertains to the extinction of species. The other written by Peter Foster looks at the millions of climate refugees. Neither prediction has come to pass, or is likely to in our lifetime, but both are still referenced by climate warmists.
Yet another prediction related to climate appeared in The Register, a British online newsletter the other day. It suggests that our Sun may be headed into another Maunder Minimum - a prolonged sunspot minimum. How is that climate related? It seems that low-sunspot activity is associated with colder temperatures on Earth. The Maunder Minimum coincided with the Little Ice Age of the 1600's and the famous River Thames Frost Fairs.
Global warming, little ice age, I don't know what to do? Maybe I'll check out that local psychic for advice?  

Leveraging change

In my last posting I suggested that we will never know when the electorate is ready to accept libertarian ideas. Can we encourage them? Can we help create the conditions for the cultural shift that might result in electing a libertarian? Good news, it's happening right now, without our help.
Nouriel Roubini a professor at New York University and a market analyst who famously predicted the financial crisis of 2007 - 09, peered into his crystal ball recently and suggested that: "a perfect storm" was brewing in the global economy as a result of sovereign debt restructuring and economic stagnation in the US, Europe, and Japan.
Roubini like others, uses the metaphor of governments and individuals kicking-the-can-down-the-road of too much public and private debt. But the can is getting heavier, and at some point, someone will trip up. Roubini thinks things come to a head in 2013, maybe, who knows, sooner or maybe later.
In Canada household debt has just reached record levels, and though many think the Canadian government is fiscally sound, factoring in provincial (especially Ontario and Quebec) and municipal debt, things are just as bad here as anywhere.
Of course with all this going on, people are starting to notice (finally). It's becoming apparent even to Joe A. Canuck (not from VYR) that government is not the solution to ALL that ails us, in fact, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan, government is the problem.  
Of course it almost goes without saying that libertarians are deeply suspicious of government and are well aware of all the above. They are critical of just about everything to do with government, but most libertarians in Canada do nothing about it, and I mean NOTHING. In fact someone wrote about the libertarian malaise here five years ago, so this is not a new phenomenon, have a look.

Its time to get off your butts folks, you don't have to move the Earth like poor old Archimedes in the picture, even a small gesture multiplied by many times will do the same work as that first class lever the old Greek is using. Our mechanical advantage will not be force, but money. One hundred dollars from one hundred people is $10,000! Since Canadian politicians know how to take care of themselves, the tax break is excellent. In a moderate tax bracket you will get 75% of your donation refunded. At least you would be doing something. Why stop there?
In Ontario this Fall, the Party of Choice will be fielding a much larger slate of candidates than the last time (2007). It would be wonderful to have a candidate, real or on paper, in each of the 107 ridings across the province.
Be part of the change, join the party, be a candidate, donate to the party, volunteer for a candidate, do something, because apathy doesn't work.

Are we there yet?

The idea that a libertarian government will not happen until and unless there is a major cultural shift in our society, has almost become a mantra among libertarians around here. Imagine what that sounds like to new enthusiastic young or even older libertarians. Wait until the time is right, then we will come riding to the rescue and like the cavalry in the old cowboy movie, and we will win the day. Just wait!


Its time to cast aside that idea, because that kind of thinking only blocks action, stifles creativity, and squelches debate. We must accept that day will never come, we will never know when the time is right, and no one will whisper in our ear the magic word: "now!" It's not going to happen.

So here is a challenge, how can we make this happen? How can we engage the unengaged? Those people who know in their gut that something is wrong, but can't imagine an alternate universe, and can't or won't get out of the rut of our current paradigm. (I'll have more on this soon)

If the libertarian idea is so powerful, why do we have such a problem making it sound desirable?

How often do you find yourself using negative terminology when explaining an issue in a casual conversation with someone. For example, on health care: libertarians would abolish government programs, yes they would. On education: libertarians would get rid of the public school system, in a heart beat. On energy: libertarians would privatize the electrical system and remove government from its monopoly on power.
All of these issues are ULTIMATE GOALS of libertarians, and more often than not, expressed in a negative way. We would remove this entitlement, or stop that monopoly and of course rarely do we offer a better option. That's a turn-off, no one likes to have the status quo upset and turn expectations into uncertainty. Most people would argue that things are working fine, maybe not as well as they could be, but "I'm satisfied" they would say. "The governments are trying, and if they screw up, well, we are free to boot them out. Whats wrong with that?" 


Isn't that what you hear in the conversations you have? I hear that ALL THE TIME. That's the problem, our so-called solutions aren't really solutions, they are dreams and most often improperly framed and poorly presented. People then walk away thinking: "what a kook with a kooky idea." Before long libertarian equals kook, and can you blame them?


So, to the question in the title, I think we're there, and I'll have more to say on this.