Election Day Autopsy Part 3 - A hidden agenda suggestion

There in the chart you see the preliminary results of Monday's election (click to enlarge). The Libertarian Party had candidates in only 23 of 308 ridings across the country. If the Libertarian vote count in the chart were projected for the all 308 ridings, it would amount to about 0.5% of voters, about the same as I achieved in Markham-Unionville. Among so-called minor parties we did well, especially compared to the Marxist-Leninist/Communist Parties with a total of 93 candidates but only twice our vote count.

Most of the polls in this election got the party order of finish correct (first to fourth) but they really missed on the important outcome. Gerry Nicholls, who calls himself one of the top five political minds in Canada, actually made some fairly accurate predictions, including the timing, the Harper majority, and the Liberal Party's demise (he thinks they are done for good).

Advance polls in this election were busy, giving the Statist media (CBC etc.) hope that a major change like a Harper defeat was imminent. No such luck, polls are run by fairly inexperienced temporary employees so it doesn't take much incompetence to create a long lineup and the illusion of a crowd. The actual voter turnout (61.4% of eligible voters) is not significantly different from 2008 (59.1%), and my theory that BIG government causes small turnouts still holds.

Of course the most important thing that happened in this election was the Harper majority. It has been a while since a majority government  (Chretien 2003)  ran the country, one that does not have to pander to the other parties. Mr. Harper has a Master's degree in Economics, he is not a fan of J. M. Keynes, at least that was the conclusion in his 1991 Master's thesis:

So we can hope that Mr. Harper, now unleashed with a majority, will actually encourage free markets in Canada. We can hope. 

The National Post in their editorial May 4th outlined what should be on Harper's agenda, I think it represents a good start for a freer Canada. Here it is in italics with my added commentary:

1. Balance the books within three years. Good, but don't stop at that, phase out entire government departments and portfolios as well.

2. Enact income splitting. Yes, it cuts taxes for families but also revenue for government, so see #1.

3. Offer all Canadians full freedom of choice in health care. Starting immediately, the government should suspend the application of the Canada Health Act for the duration of its mandate, to allow provinces freedom to experiment with alternate financing and delivery models, including private insurance and hospitals. Excellent, and allow universities to open up medical schools to more students, and encourage competing medical licensing organizations like the OMA or CMA.  

4. Pass new crime legislation - but strike a better balance between punishment and the protection of society. Certain provisions, such as those prohibiting prisoner contact with visitors, for example, serve no discernible purpose and come across as merely mean-spirited; they should be scrapped. Likewise, mandatory minimum sentences for Canadians who own a few marijuana plants (a substance that should be legal anyway) make no sense. Moreover, the law should be reformed to ensure that Canadians engaged in legitimate acts of self-defence are not treated like criminals by our justice system. Rather than just this, move to decriminalize marijuana altogether, and look for ways to provide restitution for victims of crime possibly instead of incarceration for non-violent criminals.

5. Abolish the gun registry (finally). Good start in first mandate.

6. Increase funding to the Canadian Armed Forces and veterans. If Canada is to play a serious role on the international stage, assert our sovereignty in the Arctic, and take care of our veterans after they have served their country. I disagree, maintain or reduce funding and remove our troops from their role on the international stage, period. But take care of the veterans that have suffered in those ill-advised international adventures.

7. Stop distorting internal markets through corporate welfare, regional handouts and protectionism. In this category, we would also put the Canadian Wheat Board, which should be put out of its misery at the earliest possible opportunity. Good start for the first mandate.

8. Reform the Senate to make it equal, elected and effective - and subject to term limits. A worthy goal.

9. Scrap political-party welfare, otherwise known as the public per-vote subsidy. While Quebec voters have mercifully defunded the Bloc Québécois on their own, by slashing their support and the dollars that accompany it, the government should now make good on its pledge to cut the cord for all parties. Absolutely.

10. Reinstate a culture of openness, transparency and accountability on Parliament Hill. Now that the Conservatives have a majority, there is no excuse (not that there ever was) for the paranoia, secrecy, rule-bending, shirking of due process and committee bullying that rightly has become the subject of opposition ire in recent years. I would also like to see constraints put on lobbying, but done in a such a way that political benefits cannot be given to companies (see # 7 above) and regions of the country (like Quebec) with the goal to eliminate government influence from economic issues eventually.

Election Day Autopsy Part 2 - What I learned.

Every experience is a learning experience. This was the first election (out of two) that I had election signs. What I learned three weeks ago is that sign stakes need to be pounded deeply into the ground or you will be chasing and repairing signs for the whole campaign. Yesterday, with my wife helping, I learned that pulling out those stakes is back breaking work. Fortunately we have had a very cool wet spring, the ground was soft, so I managed to get most of the stakes out and I lost about 40% of the signs for a variety of reasons. I think I had mentioned that electioneering is hard work.

I also learned that neither effort, ability nor experience will necessarily get one elected. You might think otherwise.

See the picture over there? These young people are all part of the "orange crush," the surge of NDP candidates elected in Quebec, approved and led by the guy in the middle of that montage, Jack Layton. Layton seems to be looking at Ruth Ellen Brosseau, previously an assistant manager at Oliver’s Pub on the Carleton University campus in Ottawa. Ms. Brosseau, who speaks French poorly, was elected in a largely Francophone riding 300 km away from where she lives. She spent part of the election campaign vacationing in Las Vegas, and now there are irregularity questions around her nomination papers, particularly the 100 signatures required to be nominated.

In the top right hand corner of the montage picture is Pierre-Luc Dusseault, just completed one year of university, almost 20 years old, and now the youngest person elected to Parliament in Canadian history.

Then there is Mathieu Ravignat not in the montage, but he previously ran (1997) as a candidate for the Communist Party in Quebec, illustrating for all what the NDP really stands for.

Now I'm sure these people are passionate about NDP beliefs, but what were Quebec voters thinking when they cast their ballots for them? These young people will be receiving a $157,000+ annual salary, plus other perks and will represent voters for the next four years at least. They will be running the country in some small way. What kind of understanding do they have about...well, anything? I would not even have voted for myself when I was 20 years old. I had no sense of community, or family, or a real work ethic (outside of school), or much of anything. Sure I had ideas, values, morals, but little practice. These young people have skipped the apprentice stage, and have gone straight to prime time. Their victories underline the stupidity of large parts of the electorate. Most politicians say they yield to the wisdom of the electorate, what wisdom was displayed here?

I will have more to say.   

Election Day Autopsy Part 1

Some of you out there in cyberspace might be wondering why I have yet to post my election results. 

Wonder no longer, I've had a busy day deeply involved in the attempting to procure a service that only the government will provide here in Ontario.

My elderly Mother (92 yrs) has macular degeneration, and receives treatment in the form of an injection into the eyeball of the affected eye. Lately, injections happen once a month. Ugh! I know, but that can happen when you live long. This 10 minute procedure took 6 hours to deliver to my mother by the expert doctor whom we waited on. I take her to these treatments because she is virtually blind now, and I can "speed" her through the rigamarole. Some speed eh? 

The rational behind a six hour wait in Ontario, is that government bean counters have calculated, that if the government reduces the number of doctors in the health care system they can control billing, and thus cost. Of course this results in long wait times for many procedures, any savvy adult living here knows this, and this article might help explain it to those who don't think it is true.

So that was my excuse, I spent an unproductive 6 hours in a waiting room, and I do this regularly. Who would stand for this? Well, Canadians of course, because "health-care" is "free." (see linked article to explain "free")

My 2011 results are up in the leftmost picture, the 2008 results are on the right. I believe I have identified about 230 hard core Libertarian voters, I wish I knew who they were. I will have more analysis and comments in a day or so. Stay tuned.  

Election Day - Last Gasp and Predictions

The two pictures show my final campaign day (May 1) at the local shopping mall and my attempt to 'use-up' leftover lawn signs on a major roadway so they would be visible on election day. Electioneering is just plain hard work, with a very uncertain payback. Why anyone would be  attracted to being a politician as a job, is way beyond me. It's not a fun job at all. As I suggested on my radio interview a couple of weeks back, the job of MP should be part time, certainly the legislative part of it. In several American States that is exactly the way it is. During the many lengthy breaks that our MP's take throughout the year, not to mention election campaigns, the country seems to function just fine thank you very much. The government bureaucracy can handle itself quite well, and a smaller bureaucracy, as I would suggest, would function autonomously for lengthy periods of time without legislators mucking up the works. I can dream, can't I?

The unexpected news last night about Osama Bin Laden's demise, might affect the outcome of this election - or not. Reminders of 9/11 and discussion about terrorism throughout the day might favour Harper's gang, we will see. If the Harper-ites squeak out a majority, that could be the cause. At dissolution the House of Commons seat distribution was: Conservatives 143, NDP 36, Liberals 77, BQ 47, Green 0. 

Gerry Nicholls predicts: Conservatives 157, NDP 85, Liberals 56, BQ 10, Green 0, I think he has a soft-spot for the Harper-ites. 

My go-to-blog poll, ThreeHundredEight.com, predicts Conservatives 143, NDP 78, Liberals 60, BQ 27, Green 0. 

Another poll has it: Conservatives 146, NDP 65, Liberals 63, BQ 33, Independent 1, Green 0.

My prediction for the country (which is just a guess): Conservatives 149, NDP 72, Liberals 57, BQ 30, Green 0.

My prediction for Markham-Unionville: Turnout will be fairly light, 50 to 55% of eligible voters will actually vote here.

The Liberal will win without a problem getting about 50% of the total, Conservative: ~30%, NDP: ~16%, Green less than 2%, and me the Libertarian, around 1%. A victory for me would be beating the Green candidate, its possible, but 1% would still double my showing from 2008 and I would be happy with that. With that base we could make some noise in the Provincial election this Fall. Even with less, there will be noise!