Friday, June 19, 2009

The seeds of war?

The news out of Iran of late has been very heartening. Iran it seems is not just an Islamofascist regime bent on nuclear proliferation and the eradication of Israel. No sirree! Iran is much more. Iran's close ties to the United States during the reign of the Shah planted seeds of liberty among the population. As a result it is one of the more "westernized" Islamic Republics in the region and apparently ready to question the power of the ayatollahs. The massive demonstrations after the recent presidential elections shows that vague feelings of freedom still exist even after more than 30 years of repression under the ayatollahs. But what will be the result? I suspect the result will be just as surprising as the current protests are. No one predicted that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would lose this election and he did not, according to the supreme leader ayatollah. But people don't seem to trust the results (also not predicted) and that is the most significant thing to happen in Iran since the revolution of the late 1970's.

So here we are in the midst of the greatest economic turmoil since the 1930's (just before the last major world war) with global unemployment levels still growing despite hopes that the great recession is ending. Is the stage being set for global conflict? Well look at the region that neighbours Iran. The failed or failing states of Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east and Pakistan has nuclear weapons in its simmering conflict with nuclear India (farther east). American occupied Iraq and the hated Israel are to the west with Russia to the north. Mix in the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and the strategic oil reserves of the Saudis et al and voila, all you need is the right igniter. Oh, lets not forget the Chinese and their oil interests in Sudan. Global conflict? I wouldn't bet against it.

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