Libertarian Election results and the future

That chart is an unofficial tally of the Oct. 6, 2011 election results for the Ontario Libertarian Party. Compared to the last election in 2007 when the Party had 25 candidates, this time there were 51 candidates, and we received 19,695 votes, slightly more than twice the vote count of 2007.
Many of us were satisfied that we had made progress, the party had grown, more members, twice the candidates and more interest. Three of our candidates even beat the Green Party candidate in their particular ridings. Yes, we made inroads, but if looked at in perspective, our provincial total was roughly the same as the winning candidate, the incumbent Liberal, in my own riding. One person, the same as our total. We still have a long way to go.

Many of our Libertarian candidates took comfort in the fact that we beat the Freedom Party (FP), our disaffected and embittered kinfolk. Yes, they were once libertarians, and yes we beat them by a large margin (more than two to one), even though our real differences (based on those members that I know) are virtually nonexistent. They took a different approach in this election, deciding to pander a little more to popular appeal, and thus make themselves look less scary. Their leader was aggressive, obnoxious, a bit of a braggart, and not very nice to us (he called us "a scraggly bunch of anti-government protestors" even though he has the full beard). He got lots of free press (as you can see in the previous link), they had more candidates (57), a flashier website, more money, generally more exposure than we had, and yet, very disappointing results compared to us. I wish them no malice, their goal is very similar to ours, but when you act, and look just like a conservative, people will vote for the conservative party or candidate they feel has a better chance to win, in this case the oxymoronically named Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario. That's what happened to FP, and they will need to rebrand themselves or rejoin us, because we are not going away.
There is a lesson for us here, we can't make ourselves less scary, because we lose what little credibility we have now, and we no longer become an alternative protest vote. The Libertarian brand is becoming established here in Canada, just as it has been in the US. This is not the time to change the formula or the packaging. Nor is there any chance we will be elected, not in the near or even distant future. We can change the conversation, and the Overton window in Ontario, without getting elected. Our socialist friends have done exactly that.
In 4 weeks we have a Convention, where new leadership may be chosen, and where we decide our future. There are noises among some of our new members that the time has come to get serious, to cast off our "debating society," modus operandi, and become a "real" political party. See that chart up there, we are real, we are also not the same as any other party, its time to accept that fact. Maybe thats what the noises are about. Is it time to look and act like the other parties, maybe? However, for a scraggly bunch of anti-government protestors, I think we are doing as well as can be expected, given how few of us are actually doing something, and how little our resources are. Size does matter folks, and we can only grow if people start pulling in the same direction.       

Steve Jobs

Steve Jobs 1955 - 2011

"Selling lead weights to swimmers" Operation Twist

Among other things, the Ontario election has diverted my attention from general world foolishness. A most foolish thing I have not commented on lately, is the US Fed  FOMC "action" to buy long term bonds and sell shorter term bonds, called Operation Twist.
Bonds are debt instruments, and can be thought of this way: when sold in huge amounts,  money is made available, increasing money supply and reducing the cost of the money, interest. When bonds are purchased in huge amounts, supply is reduced, increasing the cost or interest. The length of time to repay a bond is important. Short term bonds would generally cost less, because risk is less, its more likely the bond will be repaid - maybe. Longer term bonds generally cost more because the risk of repayment is greater, because the time is greater.
Operation Twist is designed to keep interest rates lower for longer, thereby "stimulating the economy." Will it work? Here is a quote: "It works in the sense that it is perfectly possible to sell short-dated bonds and buy the long-dated variety and in the process change the make-up of the Fed's bond portfolio. Beyond that, the picture is murkier." And. "The last time the Fed tried something similar was in 1961, when it managed to lower long-term rates by only 0.15 of a percentage point. That is the estimated effect according to some economists. In a 2004 paper, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke downplayed the strategy's significance as a tool for promoting lower long-term rates." 
Sounds like a lot of trouble to lower rates by such a small amount. Mr. Tugwit's bears are back to voice their opinion.

Political Power for Sale - here is the list of buyers

Sadly, another opportunity to change the political reality in Ontario is coming to a close. Tomorrow is Election Day. The jostling for power will be decided "the people will choose and get the government they deserve." The whole cliched charade will come to a crashing end.
Cliched? Of course it is, who says the people will choose, only the politicians say this, and maybe some dimwitted media reporter.
Charade? Again, of course, this election was bought and paid for well before the writ was dropped, we've just been going through the motions for the last month.
Am I being cynical? Not at all, look at this link from where the posted graphic was taken. The National Post printed that graphic in today's paper showing contributions to the three major political parties in Ontario this year, BEFORE the rules changed on Sept 7th, 2011,  when the writ was issued. Spending during an election campaign is strictly regulated, spending before the campaign, not so much, not that it needs to regulated, I'm not advocating that. The Post commentary, describes the big donations, including their source, but no reasons for the donations or any explanation or speculation is offered. That is left entirely to the reader.
So, one is left to speculate exactly why would construction industry donations be the largest of all? The construction industry even favoured the Hudak Conservatives with more money, possibly believing the pre-writ polls that gave the Tories an edge. But they are not stupid, they hedged that bet with almost the same dollar amount to McGuinty's Liberals, and less than a fifth of that to the NDP. Clearly they speculated the NDP had virtually no chance of forming a government. Does the construction industry give this money with no strings? Do you believe in the tooth fairy? My answer, no to both questions, and importantly the largest construction industry donors, the unions and Aecon Group must be expecting some sort of favourable treatment from the next government otherwise why donate.

Of most interest to me, were the top donors, the teacher's unions (I was a conscripted member once). Unions in general tended to favour the Liberals first, then the NDP, and far behind were the PC's. But the teacher's unions have a love affair with the Liberals, and why not? The teacher's had labour peace, for the entire eight year Liberal mandate. McGuinty touts himself as the "Education Premier," his wife is a teacher, and he has grown the Ministry of Education and the teaching payroll by instituting all-day kindergarten in Ontario, whether we need it or not. They love him. How much do they love him? During the entire one month election campaign, ETFO a teacher's union, produced and funded a radio and TV campaign called "Refuse to vote against kids." This was a poorly disguised attempt to tell voters to vote for the Liberals, yet the money spent was not registered as part of the Liberal spending limit. How convenient is that? That's not all, as you can see here.
So, why am I going over this now with just hours left before the polls open? Simple. Neither we Libertarians, nor our disenchanted brethren the Freedom Party (FP), had any hope of winning or even making a dent into Ontario politics this time. FP even has 57 candidates (we only have 51), and they boasted that they have a sufficient number to form a majority government. Right. That would mean the tooth fairy does exist. But neither of us will elect even one candidate or come close, that's my bold prediction. Why? Because this election was bought and paid for by the groups listed in the Post graphic above, and the voters are not sophisticated enough to understand that. Here is a more realistic prediction. Don't forget to vote, anyway, we need the numbers.