VOTE 2011: YouTube of Introductory remarks

I've mentioned my participation at the public forum held at OISE University of Toronto on April 23, 2011, in a previous post. The good people who organized this gathering have posted the introductory remarks of each of the participating parties onto YouTube, so thanks to Support Local Scene's Channel.

Here is what I had to say:

Election Day minus 5 - Are the Liberals Toast?

Day 33 - Just to follow-up on my comments yesterday, Jack Layton's NDP may become the official opposition in Canada on May 2. As I suggested yesterday the NDP has been adjusting the orbit of the Canadian welfare state for so long, they might as well run the show.
It may be too early to write the obit for the Liberal Party, but I'm not the first. I was at a (Libertarian) party caucus meeting almost two weeks ago when I heard our keynote speaker (Gerry Nicholls), predict the end of the Liberals this election or the next. This was well before all the NDP media hype of the last few days, so I just tucked that idea away. But it could be happening now!
A column in my morning paper is suggesting the same thing. So whats going on?
Well, I think it just confirms the idea that Canadian voters fail to see differences among the major parties. Over the years, Liberals and Conservatives have stolen platform ideas from the NDP and the Greens - the Liberals in particular. So, if one needs a microscope to see differences between the Liberals and NDP, and the NDP leader is "likeable," while the Liberal leader is not, then it makes sense for voters to choose the NDP. The Liberal reason for being fades.
Its too bad really, like many other libertarians, I would consider myself liberal, in the classical sense. Libertarians value individual freedom of choice, with regard to their body, and individual freedom of action with regard to the state. The power of the state needs to be limited in such a way that it does not interfere with regard to economic and social interactions. While the liberal idea still exists in Canada, the Liberal Party may disappear. The country may be polarizing between statists who claim to be fiscally responsible but social conservative, and statists who prefer to grow the nanny state, yet happen to be socially liberal. Some choice! Wait until people realize that Layton wants a "cap-and-trade" system.
The poll picture below shows the virtual tie between the Liberals and NDP. This may split the vote so much, that the Conservatives win a majority with even less of the popular vote of than in the last election.

Meanwhile in my own "campaign" such as it is, I'll be out at public places handing out flyers, and at home trying to complete government income taxes :-( too. Which one should I give priority too?

     

Election Day minus 7 and 6 - Momentum

Lenin and Layton

Day 31 and 32 - Poor Bob Rae, he picked the wrong partner. Those who live in Ontario remember Rae when he was the first and only NDP Premier in this province. He actually tried to control government spending by instituting "Rae-Days" or furlough days for government workers like teachers (me). I happen to know the very same type of thing is happening in California now - furlough days for teachers, and in other States and Federally. Most Canadians probably don't know this, why should they, they don't even know what's happening in their own country.

So, why am I picking on Bob Rae? It seems that the NDP (socialists who prefer orange to red) are big news in the waning days of this election. Maybe Canadians are acknowledging that we indeed have a fairly socialist big government that keeps growing despite the so-called Conservative Prime Minister Harper. The truth is Harper's minority government has made so many concessions to the NDP, we may as well have the NDP governing us. Bob Rae switched from Leader of the Provincial NDP, to leader-in-waiting of the Federal Liberals, and the Liberals seem to be fading fast in the polls - bad move for Bob.

Jack Layton, up there in the picture does bear some resemblance to Lenin in more ways than one. People say Layton is a nice guy (Lenin I hear was not), they would love to have him over for a beer - Layton not Lenin. I'm sure he is a nice guy, and while that might qualify him for a friendly beer, it doesn't mean you want him doing anything else. But who knows, a Layton government may actually be better than a Conservative one. Layton is anti-war, like Libertarians, so if his government brought our troops home, that would be a savings of lives and money. Several NDP provincial governments have actually been known to cut spending and act fiscally responsible when in power, Layton might do the same. I don't thing the corporations will like him though, but with six days to go Jack has momentum. The graph shows NDP poll results in orange and more can be found here.

  

Canada’s dirty little secret

Among the lies that are bandied about by Canada's politicians (not including me) during an election, is the one about Canada's fiscal restraint, and how we have our house in order compared to our American neighbours for example.
In the midst of this election campaign most of the "news" has focused on polls, parties, leaders and their whereabouts, with very little on issues that will affect everyone in the not-to-distant-future. An article in the National Post by Diane Francis highlights one of those issues. Her column Canada's Case of 'Dutch Disease' illustrates that the economy is not as rosy as the politicians paint it. Ms. Francis claims that much of Canada's current prosperity is due to the commodity boom fuelled by China's growth. If China were to stumble, look out.
I've written before on why I think China's growth is an illusion based their government's desire to export cheap stuff to the rest of the world, keeping their employment high, even at a loss, which they can absorb for the time being. At some point even they will not be able to continue, that could be months or years from now, its impossible to know. But when, China does stumble Ms. Francis says Canada gets badly hurt.
Her column comes after a report issued by a Montreal independent investment consulting firm MacroResearchBoard (MRB). Ms. Francis criticizes the report because "it ignores, as do politicians, Canada’s dirty little secret, which is that federal public debt to GDP may be the lowest in the developed world, but when provincial debts are included, the ratio is nearly as serious as America’s in relationship to GDP. To separate them is misleading because provincial debts are guaranteed by Ottawa. And a year from now, Ontario and Quebec alone will owe more than Ottawa, or half a trillion dollars." Ms. Francis goes on to say: "In fact, Eastern Canada’s economies resemble Michigan’s, Detroit’s or Spain’s, but are hidden by the boom in the West, led by Alberta.
But once commodity prices head downward, China slows or both, it will have a huge impact on Canada. This is the report’s important takeaway."
Ontario's debt is approaching $240 billion, Quebec's debt is approaching $236 billion, and the Federal government's debt is approaching $570 billion (April 25th, 2011). So the question is, how long before a problem occurs? Maybe when interest rates rise, do you think they ever will? This video won't make you feel any better either: